Four genes predict high risk of progression from smoldering to symptomatic multiple myeloma (SWOG S0120).

Multiple myeloma is preceded by an asymptomatic phase, comprising monoclonal gammopathy of uncertain significance and smoldering myeloma. Compared to the former, smoldering myeloma has a higher and non-uniform rate of progression to clinical myeloma, reflecting a subset of patients with higher risk. We evaluated the gene expression profile of smoldering myeloma plasma cells among 105 patients enrolled in a prospective observational trial at our institution, with a view to identifying a high-risk signature. Baseline clinical, bone marrow, cytogenetic and radiologic data were evaluated for their potential to predict time to therapy for symptomatic myeloma. A gene signature derived from four genes, at an optimal binary cut-point of 9.28, identified 14 patients (13%) with a 2-year therapy risk of 85.7%. Conversely, a low four-gene score (< 9.28) combined with baseline monoclonal protein < 3 g/dL and albumin ≥ 3.5 g/dL identified 61 patients with low-risk smoldering myeloma with a 5.0% chance of progression at 2 years. The top 40 probe sets showed concordance with indices of chromosome instability. These data demonstrate high discriminatory power of a gene-based assay and suggest a role for dysregulation of mitotic checkpoints in the context of genomic instability as a hallmark of high-risk smoldering myeloma.